Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”