Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.